-The models are trending north/west with the track of the storm. Remember you want to be about 100+ miles northwest of the low track to get heavy snow. The latest modeling data has the low tracking along the Ohio River, nearly the same track of the system back in early January.
-Also, the models have trended MUCH lower on snowfall totals. Some of the models were going just insane, trying to put down 20 - 30" in some areas. Today----the models are now showing anywhere from 6-12" in the heaviest snow band! Big difference, and that seems much more realistic.
What we do know is that this is going to be a strong storm system lifting out of Texas and pushing northeast. These storms are the kind that usually give us the big snows around here. There is easily 1"+ of moisture that will be working through the state.
The thing is, when these storms really gather strength and deepen, the Coriolis effect naturally causes the storm to pull poleward. A "northward" shift always seems to occur with these storms as you get closer to the event. The question becomes, will the "northward" trend continue, and put the snow band even farther north? Not ruling that out yet, but with the presence of a high to our north, I think that will keep the storm from going "way" northward, but I will have to watch the trends over the next several days.
I want to show the GFS model for 7pm Tuesday evening, when the heaviest precipitation would be falling over Indiana. The blue is snow, the colors in the middle represent a wintry mix, and all that green across southern Indiana is rain. Notice how it would indicate the heavy snow band to set up across the northern parts of the state, probably from near Indy and points north. This model even has Indy on the edge, so according to this model, even a slight shift farther north would put Indy out of the heavy snow, which is possible.
Interesting to note that the other models are looking rather similar to the GFS. The EURO and Canadian are a bit farther southward with the heavy snow, but the clear northward shift from what the models showed a couple days ago. These models would still hammer all of central and northern Indiana with the snow. Expect changes in the models over the next few days, but the clear trend is for the snow axis to set up in central and northern parts of the state. Perhaps a very similar track to the early January storm, which hammered areas from Indy/north, while areas south saw almost nothing. The bottom line is the forecast is far from set in stone. Just have to continue watching the trends and I will keep you updated over the next several days. In my honest opinion.. I think the snow sets up from I-70 north, with much of southern Indiana seeing more rain that snow. Way to early to make a certain call and I'm not, but based on how these systems normally track that seems like the most likely scenario.
Now to the weekend system. The NWS has already issued a Winter Storm Watch for extreme north/west parts of the state:
It appears some waves of light snow mixed with rain south during the day tomorrow. Perhaps some minor accumulations here and there but no big deal. It is later tomorrow night when the precipitation really ramps up across the area. At this time, it could start off as some freezing rain and snow for the Indy metro Friday night with rain south, transitioning to all rain as we head into Saturday morning. As we head through the day Saturday, the rain/snow line moves way north, all the way towards far northern Indiana. By Saturday night, the precipitation could end as some snow before moving out. The snow axis has shifted northward from yesterday. Now the heavy snow band of 5-8" is going to set up from South Bend to Gary, to Chicago. Lighter totals south of there of 1-3" are possible, with a 1" possible in Indy. To clarify: this snowfall map is ONLY for the weekend system. This is NOT a map for next week's storm. This map only goes out to 7pm Sunday.
Some of the models are trying to push another wave through just to our south late Sunday into Monday. This could graze far southern Indiana with light snow Sunday night.
So there you go, a very changeable, challenging forecast! Keep checking back for updates!
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