LATE WEEK - WEEKEND: Before I talk about next week, we have plenty to watch for as we head into late week. A stalled boundary will set up, causing overrunning precipitation across the Hoosier state. For Friday, it looks like snow and sleet will break out across the central and northern parts of the state. Southern Indiana could see a wintry mix as well. By Friday night, we will have continued warm air advection. This means areas SOUTH of I-70 should shift to plain rain late Friday night and during the day Saturday. NORTH OF I-70, a different story perhaps. It appears the northern half of the area may stay all snow, or a mix, which will obviously beef up snow totals. As colder air filters back in Saturday night, areas south of I-70 could end with a touch of snow. It is beginning to look like significant snow accumulations are possible across much of northern Indiana. Check out the latest GFS and NAM snowfall forecasts posted below. I-70 could literally be the dividing line between several inches and a dusting. Very sharp snow cut-off will set up:
NEXT WEEK: The models continue to show a storm system coming out of Texas and moving towards the Ohio/Tennessee Valley next Tuesday into Wednesday. Normally, this is a good track for snow in Indiana. This early in the game, the models will continue to flip-flop with each run. Right now, the EURO hammers much of Indiana with heavy snow. Important to note that there is also some concern for some ice, too. Just for fun, this model shows 12"+ in the area that would see all snow. Posted below is the EURO 850 mb temperature chart. You can pick out the center of low pressure moving through the Tennessee Valley. This track would put all of Indiana in a significant snow. ***THESE MODELS WILL SHIFT WITH EACH RUN*** THE LAST RUN HAD THE SNOW STAYING SOUTH OF INDIANA LEAVING US DRY. JUST AN EXAMPLE OF HOW INCONSISTENT THE MODEL DATA IS THIS FAR OUT!
The GFS also has a pretty good track for snow across the state. but it is flatter/weaker with the storm than the EURO, but still gives the state a good hit with plenty of snow. I posted a couple images of what the model is showing near the beginning and towards the end of the storm. It shows parts of the area getting ice, and even rain before switching to all snow. This is just ONE model run. These models will continue to make changes.
The Canadian model also backs up the EURO with a state-wide heavy snowfall. (It dumps 20 to 30 inches for central and southern Indiana, hehe)
These forecasts are very subject to change, and significant changes in the forecast are possible at this point. Don't get too excited or disappointed yet. We know that anything is possible at this point. This storm could still shift so far north that it puts the area in rain or so far south that it keeps the snow suppressed south. I think SOMEONE in the Ohio Valley gets a lot of snow. Keep checking back in the days ahead for updates.
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