Thankfully the axis of the heaviest rain is shifting east tonight. Temperatures will begin to drop off later tonight, and we will see temperatures falling throughout the day Sunday. Expect to start the day with a few scattered showers, transition to snow showers during the afternoon and early evening. These could drop a quick coating especially on grassy and elevated surfaces. Any snow accumulations will stay under 1".
A very cold air mass settles in Sunday night and Monday. Expect a cold day Monday with highs not getting out of the teens north of I-70, with lower 20s in southern Indiana.
All eyes are on a clipper system expected to move in from the northwest Monday night into Tuesday. Let's dive into some of the data. The GFS model brings in a swath of snow across central and northern Indiana.
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| Graphic courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com |
Here is the snowfall accumulation off the latest GFS. It is putting down several inches of snowfall for areas along and north of the I-70 corridor with a sharp cut-off south of Indianapolis.
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| GFS snow accumulation map courtesy of Earl Barker's Model Page wxcaster.com |
Here is a look at the Canadian model. Overall very similar to the GFS except it is a bit farther south.
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| Image courtesy of tropical tidbits.com |
Here is the snowfall accumulation map from this model. It paints several inches of snowfall from roughly a Bloomington to Columbus line and points north.
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| Image courtesy of tropical tidbits.com |
I will go ahead and post the NAM model too. Note that it keeps the snow in northern Indiana, farther north than the rest of the models.
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Here is the snow accumulation from this model. It says nothing at all for Indy metro with accumulations staying along and north of a Lafayette and Kokomo line.
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| Image courtesy of wxcaster.com |
My thinking? I will say I do not buy the NAM solution keeping the snow that far north. I think the Canadian may be a little bit too far south on the southern extent of the snow. Overall I think the GFS idea is a decent solution right now. If you live anywhere north of I-70, especially in north central and northern Indiana - your chances of snow are very very good. Notice that every model I posted have several inches of snow for you. There is going to be a sharp cut-off on the southern extent of this system, but where will that end up?? Right now I like the I-70 corridor area as a pretty good barrier between several inches of snow and very little snow to the south....but again - small deviations in the track will make a big difference. If you live in southern Indiana, south of Bloomington/Columbus, your chances of snow are very low for this system in my opinion other than a few flurries. Right now, early numbers would suggest a 3-6" snowfall across north central and northern Indiana. The track of this system is not etched in stone and will be fine-tuned over the next couple of days.
FRIGID dangerous cold moves in for the middle of the week. Highs on Wednesday will only reach the single digits in most spots with lows below zero across the state Thursday morning. Areas across north central and northern Indiana could see actual air temperatures drop into double digit below zero territory with the help of a decent snow pack!! Check out the GFS numbers for Thursday morning....
These are actual air temperatures....NOT even factoring in the wind chill! This is now just as cold as the crazy barbaric cold we had this same time last year that we thought was so crazy! There is no way around it....dangerously cold air coming for the mid/late week. The good news is that there will be a decent improvement in temperatures later next weekend into the following week....so this a relatively brief but very intense shot of cold air. Make needed preparations.
I will try to post another blog tomorrow...if not I will have updates on my Facebook weather page. Thanks for reading and take care.
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