EXTREMELY WARM START TO DECEMBER!

What a way to start the first day of December! Temperatures as of noon are already at or above 60 degrees. Dry weather can be expected for the afternoon, and temperatures will continue to warm a few more degrees, with just about everyone in the 60's for highs.

A disturbance will move in tonight/early Sunday, with some scattered showers. Most areas should see mostly dry conditions by tomorrow afternoon, so most outdoor plans are in decent shape. Highs will hit the 60's again.

And there's your weekend forecast! I have to get off because I am going dirt-biking and hiking this afternoon! Get outside and enjoy this weather.

Latest on early week system

C-O-L-D morning outside! Waking up to wind chills in the teen, and temperatures in the middle 20's. Despite some sunshine off and on today, temperatures will be slow to warm. Middle 30's for most areas.

Sunday will be a bit milder, partial sun and highs in the middle 40's.

Now to the early week system advertised on the blog since the 17th. This one has been fun, yet aggravating tracking on the models, as they have flip-flopped so much. At first they agreed on a weak, southern storm system, (which is what's expected now) to a stronger, farther north track. Since Thursday, the models have been waffling back and forth and very inconsistent. While things are becoming more clear now, the details are still shady.

It is clear now that this will be a weak storm system that will track south of Indiana. As it does, a light mix of rain and snow is expected to develop across parts of southern Indiana by Monday evening. That should briefly change over to a period of light snow Monday night. It appears the snow side of the system will only be about 50 miles wide, so PLACEMENT IS EVERYTHING when it comes to who gets the snow, and who gets nothing.

Snow amounts, if any, are hard to pinpoint still because of the timing of the system. If more falls during the day, I don't see any accumulation. If it works out to fall during the night, light accumulations would be possible.

The HPC is catching on to the idea of light accumulations for southern Indiana Monday night. Shown below are the probabilities for 1-2" of snow. With the next update, this may need shifted even farther south, near the I-64 corridor.

The latest GFS shows a rain/snow mix across the southern half of the state late Monday night through Tuesday. Because it is slower with the system, it shows little or no accumulation.

The NAM is farther south, but more narrow and robust with the snow band. The NAM is also faster, bringing it in Monday evening/night.

This model also shows the potential for a couple inches of snow across extreme southern Indiana and northern Kentucky Monday night.

Here are MY thoughts on how this plays out: Right now I like how the NAM models is playing out the system overall. I think light rain/snow showers will break out Monday evening across southern Indiana, switching over to a period of light snow/flurries into Tuesday morning. I think the system stays far enough south that areas north of Bloomington/Columbus may see nothing at all from this system. Again, this forecast is certainly NOT set in stone yet.

The updated model runs will be coming within the next two hours. I will post those updates on facebook. Stay tuned!

UPDATE on next week's storm.

Good evening! Sorry I haven't been updating the blog as much lately. While I am so busy, I still try to post quick updates via facebook. So if you haven't liked my page, the link is at the top of the page.

The main topic of the blog will be next week's interesting set-up, but here are some quick thoughts about our weather between now and Sunday:

-GREAT weather through Thanksgiving, as sunshine returns. Highs in the low 60's.

-CHANGES arrive beginning Black Friday, with falling temps into the 40's and some rain showers as shoppers head out well before daylight.

-COLD weekend! Saturday stays in the 30's, and Sunday in the low-mid 40's. Wind chills even colder. Other than flurries for n/e parts of Indiana, a dry weekend can be expected. 

NOW TO THE FUN PART OF THE FORECAST :) NOV. 27-28..It's a very interesting and fun forecast as we head into the next week, and beyond. I have mentioned for a week now that the NAO indices are expected to go negative, perhaps strongly negative. Keep in mind, when the NAO goes negative, you can just about always count on cold weather locally. This is due to strong blocking over Greenland. Let's take a look at the indices shown on the models.

GFS NAO readings aren't off the charts, but certainly negative.



The EURO is very negative, off the charts in fact.


Both models agree that as cold air moves into the Plains states early next week, a storm will develop to our southwest, and then track our way. The models, however, are struggling with the intensity and track of the storm. Going back to last night, the GFS and EURO agreed on the storm being weaker and farther south, favoring accum snows for us. Today, the EURO decides to take the storm farther north and stronger as well.  It also appears the GFS has trended a bit closer to the EURO, but certainly not to its extent.

The GFS run from this evening has trended a little bit farther north, but such a set-up would feature a wintry mix to snow set-up, (all snow for some). Areas in the white circle would be the areas with the best chance of accumulating snow, again, according to the GFS.

The EURO on the other hand is stronger and farther north, with the low tracking near or just barely northwest of us. Such a set-up would favor rain, changing over to light snow as cold air rushes in behind the storm. Notice the accumulating snows would be much farther northwest if the current EURO were to verify.

SO WHICH MODEL IS RIGHT??? Good question. :) When I see the NAO so low, I would tend to favor a stronger storm, which would increase the chances of it tracking either right over or northwest of us. Because of the huge uncertainty, I would take a middle road approach, with a rain/snow mix and highs in the low 40's during this time. However, we can't take out the GFS's idea yet either. It is still a week out so basically expect daily changes to this forecast. Hopefully the models will have a much better handle on the situation in a few days. So bottom line, if you're a huge snow fan like me, just waiting for the first good snow of the season, it is still possible. Still too early for any more specifics..stay tuned!

7-day outlook - CPC winter forecast - my thoughts on winter ahead!

Here is my forecast for the next 7 days... very quiet! We've got a nice rebound in temps starting tomorrow, and continuing for the next week or more. Highs in the middle/upper 50's will be common after tomorrow's low 50's. The only chance for a shower is Tuesday, and it's a SMALL chance. Thanksgiving Day is looking great...sunny and low 60's!!

The CPC has updated their winter forecast today, with "Equal chances" for above, below, or near normal temps. A big change from earlier, they now have the southern half of Indiana in above average precipitation for the winter.

I have been trying to put out my own winter forecast this year, but I have decided not to as I am just too busy with my studies preparing for college. I will tell you my thoughts at this point. I am going for slightly below normal temperatures and near normal snowfall. Nothing drastic from normal, but certainly a huge change from last year, if my thoughts pan out. 

I will not have as much time to keep the blog updated over the next several weeks. I will still be able to post quick updates on facebook, so be sure to "like" my page! Have a great rest of the evening!

Record Hot Again - Timing Storm Chances

Whew, it was a SCORCHER of a day! 102 officially in Indy, tying the record high of 102 in 1936. Seems like the terms "more record heat", "drought" have been very common terms  all summer long! Today was the 8th time that Indy has hit 100+. Think about that for a second. There are only four other summers in the record books that had heat similar to this year. We have been going through weeks and weeks of this unprecedented historical heat! Plenty of heat will stick around through the middle of the week!

Now that we have covered the hot part of the weather, now let's talk about storm chances, and yes, we actually have some chances! How about a early morning 'wake up call' to high winds, lightning, and torrential rains. I think this will be a good bet for areas from Indianapolis and points north/eastward. Here is my latest map with the track of these storms tonight:

There is also another chance of severe weather tomorrow, extending farther south as well. 

I will go with a 30-40% storm coverage tomorrow, with highs in the range of 91-97. Storm chances go down to 20% Wednesday, as the mercury should hit 100 for the 9th time this summer.

Storm chances really ramp up Thursday, as a front and a surface low move into the state. Severe weather looks like a decent bet with this system, so stay tuned!

Some areas will get some decent rain amounts, but most of us will not get enough to be major "drought busters." Northern Indiana picked up widespread 1-3" rains last week, and those same areas could get similar amounts yet again this week. Here is the HPC 5-day rainfall map:

I came across an interesting graphic from The Weather Channel concerning the drought, and how quickly it developed between May 15-July 17. This really gives the idea of just how much rain we SHOULD get between May and now, but how little we got this year!

Keep an eye on radar before you head out in the morning, as scattered storms are in the forecast after 2am! Have a great night, thanks for stopping by.

Explanation On The Heat and Drought Affecting Indiana - Why It Won't Be Easy to Break!

Good evening.Talk about a scorcher today! Indy broke the record of 100 set in 1887! We hit 101 degrees today, and the humidity only made it feel hotter. I've heard a lot of people say, "What ever happened to that cool-down that was supposed to happen last week?" In this blog post, I am going to explain why our weather pattern is so hot and dry right now, and why it won't be easy to break.


What's up with this crazy weather pattern? No doubt about it, this is the hottest and driest summer so far in Indiana. Our pattern became so warm and dry going way back in March, when large areas of high pressure kept influencing our weather, bringing lots of sun and day after day of temperatures way above normal. The very similar pattern held true all spring. These large masses of high pressure cause unusual dry spells of weather throughout the spring, causing a drought to develop over the area in late May.

In June, the dry weather continued, as our ground became drier and drier as the weeks went on, with basically no rainfall in many areas for much of June. This created a weather pattern that was more typical of a desert. Several "dry fronts" swept in for the first half of June, ushering in extremely dry air from the north, and the dry ground only helped to make the humidity even lower. This allowed for big temperature swings across the area, some cases as much as a 30 degree jump from morning to afternoon temperatures. A massive a.k.a "DEATH RIDGE" parked itself over the central plains & rockies during the second half of June, which caused all the wildfires to really get out of control in Colorado. This ridge began it's move farther east after the 25th, bringing some of the hottest weather to ever strike the state since the Dust Bowl days! Indy ended the month with consecutive days in the 100's. That same ridge leads us to where we are now. The dry ground has only allowed the temperatures to get hotter, because a dry ground heats up fast, which is why drought usually has scorching hot weather to go along with it. Since then, our weather has been dominated by temps between 95-101 degrees, day after day after day. While there have been pop-up storms during the afternoons, widespread rains have continued to be absent from the state.


Why this pattern will be hard to break: You may have heard the saying "drought begets drought." This phrase is very true, because hot and dry weather seem to go hand in hand. When you have a lot of moisture in the air, the atmosphere has to get rid of its moisture before heating up. This helps keep temperatures reasonable. Without any moisture, there is nothing to stop temperatures from rising quickly, along with few clouds to slow a warm-up. As a result, you get more days with those highs in the mid 90's to near 100.


The heat causes very fast evaporation of what little moisture is around, and helps the heat to intensify. So in turn, the two basically feed off each other. The only hopes at this point would be a big change in the Pacific temperature pattern to force systems into the midwest. There have been signs of relief in the next couple weeks, but so far, the rain department has remained rather spotty. The deficit will take months to make up. 


We have a 30-50% chance of scattered storms tomorrow through Friday. Much like today, they will be scattered, so some areas may stay dry. On another note, I am forecasting another day of triple digits tomorrow!



Thanks for reading, have a great night!