Saturday, November 26, 2011

Tricky Forecast!!

Good evening! Hope everyone had a great Saturday. The forecast continues to be a tricky one over the next few days! Let's get down to business.....


I'm going to split this forecast in half. First I will discuss the rain chances with the system, then I will be discussing the snow part of the system.


The rainy side: Certainly no snow tonight! Temps are still well in the 60's! Rains are moving in from west to east tonight, and could become heavy. The rain showers will continue tomorrow, a cold rain at that, as our temps really tumble into the upper 40's. Not a great day for those traveling home from their destinations. To put it simply, rains will continue through Tuesday! Check out these rain totals expected, WOW!!

It appears anywhere between 3-4" of rain across the entire Hoosier state by Tuesday night. Flooding will be a real possibility, as the NWS has already issued a flood watch for areas near the Ohio River.


The snow part: First off, while we have rain Monday, areas across the Tennessee Valley will be seeing snow!! How is that possible? Well this is one rare wild set-up with a cut-off low. Check this out:

Yep, folks down across Kentucky and Tennessee will be enjoying some snowfall! The reason behind that is because under the low, there is a pool of cold air, called "dynamic cooling" and causes the rain to change to snow. We will have a SE flow off the low for Monday, hence just too warm for snow. But don't give up all you snow lovers!! We still have a chance of snow here in the forecast for Tuesday night. After another day of cold rain for Tuesday, colder air will be working in for Tuesday evening. A deformation zone will be swinging into the area at that time. BIG question remains, will the cold air hit in time to see a period of snow?? It's certainly possible, but I think the best chance of putting accumulations on the ground would be off to our northeast. Still needs to be watched CLOSELY. Accuweather continues to outline central and northern Indiana with the chance of heavy,wet snow Tuesday night:



Still a lot of uncertainties in this forecast! I will have more updates tomorrow. Have a great night!

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