Model trends today: The models pull the system northeast Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the cold air still far from us. So it is looking more like a rain event for us! However, there is 1 model that dumps the snow on us Wednesday night and Thursday. Here is your model round-up:
Euro: Is moving the storm system through well before the cold air catches up with the storm Wednesday night. All rain event. I drew the white line to represent where the cold air is, and the arrow to show where the storm was moving.
GFS: Agrees with the EURO. Rain event, mainly south of I-70 Wednesday. Cold air moves in after the precipitation is gone.
Canadian: Again, this is the 1 model that still has hope for snow! It shows the north & south systems "phasing" just east of us, with heavy snow. Again, I think this is an outlier solution right now.
Even if this does turn out as an all rain event, snow showers would be a likely bet for next Thursday, with arctic air spilling into the state. Some models show a disturbance next Thursday, that may help our snow chances:
If that were the case, we could see a light snow event. Again, I am not expecting any major snowstorms next week. The bigger story will be some downright cold air! Check out the GFS for next Friday:
Is this a "locked-in" cold pattern? I think the short answer is no, but I think we get much more frequent arctic air blasts, and short periods of milder weather in between. I think we get several accumulating snow systems later this month, as the pattern will begin to be in favor for snow. Overall, I think this certainly pattern that will be much more typical for winter. Word to all you snow-lovers out there: Things are looking more and more favorable for frequent shots of cold air and snow for the second half of January!
BRING ON THE SNOW!!!!!
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